The funnel and the gates
Targets are hypotheses to be replaced by our data. Stages follow the canonical 13 (ten stages plus Lost, No decision and Disqualified); self-serve buyers enter at Won and are reported separately. Band, vertical and source are cohort dimensions from day one.
| Step | Target (hypothesis) | Gate before scaling spend |
|---|---|---|
| Warm list, private window | 10% to 25% pays within 30 days | Under 5% after 14 days: fix offer or message |
| Pricing page, warm traffic | 3% or more pay | Counter tested against billing |
| Set-up, days 0 to 2 | 80% of invited seats connect LinkedIn in 48 hours | A named person on the account |
| Activation by day 14 | 40% of accounts per weekly cohort | No paid acquisition at scale until two cohorts reach 40% |
| Habit, days 60 to 90 | A majority of paid seats at 2 posts a week in 3 of the last 4 weeks | Customer success across the whole window |
| Month 1 | Logo churn 6% or less; cancellation or refund requests 10% or less | Over 8% churn or 15% requests: pause promotion |
| Months 2 to 6 | Three-month retention 85% or more; monthly churn under 3% by month 6 | Case studies only from accounts meeting their criteria |
Activation (canonical). By day 14 after payment: every invited paid seat has LinkedIn connected; at least one voice is built; at least 5 posts approved; at least one feature beyond scheduling used; and, with 3 or more seats, a second seat has an approved post. Gates use counts until a cohort has 20 accounts; founders may pool consecutive weekly cohorts to reach 20. An account not activated by day 14 stays at Onboarded with a "not activated by day 14" flag.
Onboarding order: voice, then Holly's first draft from something real, then rules and approvals, then the calendar (scheduler-first trains the churn behaviour). Approvals on; Holly at Suggest for everyone and Observe for regulated firms (law, financial services, accountancy, any firm that asks); the customer may choose any level and we record it (D8). No guilt messages after a missed week.